Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

UKCEH

Welcome

Domestics

• Fire alarm
• Toilets
• Wi-fi

Website

All materials on course website:

nerc-ceh.github.io/beem

Explaining the course title

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

Explaining the course title

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

• conditional probability

Explaining the course title

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

• conditional probability
• broader than “statistics”

Explaining the course title

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

• conditional probability
• broader than “statistics”
• data are indirect, true processes are hard to observe

Explaining the course title

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

• conditional probability
• broader than “statistics”
• data are indirect, true processes are hard to observe
• any kind of model

Confusion is normal

• Get comfortable with confusion
• Ask questions!

Overview

Overview

Monday pm

• background
• basics
  • conditional probablility

Overview

Tuesday am

• basics continued
• Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms
  • how the Bayesian approach is typically implemented

Tuesday pm

• Linear modelling
  • practical application to simple models

Overview

Wednesday am

• Model comparison & selection
• Measurement and uncertainty

Wednesday pm

• Hierarchical modelling
  • practical application to more complex models

Overview

Thursday am

• Hierarchical modelling cont.
• Process-based modelling
  • practical application to very complex models

Thursday pm

• Process-based modelling cont.
• Machine learning

Overview

Friday am

Up to you …

• small group discussions?
• recap / revisit?

Feedback

• Please feel free to suggest improvements.
• Please also fill in the online form:

https://ceh-online-surveys.onlinesurveys.ac.uk/bayesian-methods-feedback-form-march-24

Introductions