Linear Modelling

Bayesian Methods for Ecological and Environmental Modelling

Peter Levy
UKCEH Edinburgh

Review

Different kinds of systems & models

• stable, periodic, chaotic, complex
• empirical, statistical, machine learning, process-based

Linear models

• simplest type of model
• parameters can be estimated from data using MCMC
• very easy with rstanarm
• informative priors can be specified

Tomorrow

Model selection & comparison

• which \(x\) variables to include?
• what form of model \(f\) to use?
• which model is better?

Tomorrow

Hierarchical modelling

• samples not independent but grouped
  • e.g. species, sites, dates, methods, …
• groups can be nested
  • regions | sites | plots
  • family | genus | species

Questions?