Scenarios
elements is designed to be used to model scenarios of
environmental change considering multiple interacting drivers. The
object elements::ExampleScenarios provides a basic set of
example scenarios: (A) Climate Change - RCP4.5, (A) Climate Change -
RCP8.5, (B) Grazing Intensification (+0.025GP per year), (B) Grazing
Reduction (-0.025GP per year), and (C) Nutrient Enrichment (+0.25N per
year) along with a Baseline scenario. Below the predicted probabilities
for the taxa in elements::ExamplePlot for the scenarios are
displayed.
elements::startup()
#> elements startup completed.
scenario_results <- elements::predict_occ(taxa = elements::ExamplePlot$taxon_code,
predictors = elements::ExampleScenarios,
append = "ids") |>
dplyr::left_join(elements::TaxonomicBackbone |> dplyr::select(taxon_name, taxon_code), by = "taxon_code")
Environmental Filtering
In addition to modelling the response of individual taxa over time
let’s inspect how the constant taxa in EUNIS habitats respond to
scenarios in elements::ExampleScenarios, by presenting the
mean of the probabilities of each EUNIS habitats constant taxa, for the
top EUNIS habiats.
eunis_taxa_models <- intersect(unique(elements::EUNISConstantTaxa$taxon_code),
elements::TaxonomicBackbone$taxon_code)
predictors_scenanrios <- elements::ExampleScenarios |>
dplyr::select(-scenario_code) |>
dplyr::distinct()
eunis_filter_results <- elements::env_filter(predictors = predictors_scenanrios,
taxa = eunis_taxa_models,
screen = TRUE, method = "svm",
limit = "min_max",
exclude = NULL, threshold = NULL,
append = "ids")The mean probability for the constant taxa in the top EUNIS habitat in the baseline (Q24 - Intermediate fen and soft-water spring mire) decreases in all example scenarios.
elements::shutdown()