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Scenarios

elements is designed to be used to model scenarios of environmental change considering multiple interacting drivers. The object elements::ExampleScenarios provides a basic set of example scenarios for the RF1 plot in elements::ExamplePlots: (A) Climate Change: a.i - ssp126, a.ii - ssp245, a.iii - ssp370, a.iv - ssp585. (B) Grazing: b.i - Grazing intensification, b.i - Grazing reduction (C) Nutrient: c.i - Nutrient Enrichment, c.ii - Nutrient Reduction (D) Interactions: d.i - Climate Change + Nutrient Reduction + Grazing Reduction, d.ii - Climate Change + Nutrient Addition + Grazing Reduction, d.iii - Climate Change + Nutrient Reduction + Grazing Intensification, d.iv - Climate Change + Nutrient Addition + Grazing Intensification Below the predicted probabilities for the taxa in plot RF1 in elements::ExamplePlots for all scenarios are displayed.

Environmental Filtering

In addition to modelling the response of individual taxa over time let’s inspect how the constant taxa in EUNIS habitats respond to scenarios in elements::ExampleScenarios, by presenting the mean of the probabilities of each EUNIS habitats constant taxa, for the top EUNIS habiats.

The mean probability for the constant taxa in the top EUNIS habitat in the baseline (Q24 - Intermediate fen and soft-water spring mire) decreases in all example scenarios.

elements::shutdown()